Hitwise - Can Search Volume Predict American Idol Winner?

May 18, 2005; 12:00 AM

NEW YORK, May 18, 2005 - The reality show American Idol is captivating millions of Americans and advertiser-dollars with its viewer-voting participation and contestant scandals. As the show enters its final two weeks, new data shed light into how the show's anticipation is luring viewers to search the Internet to engage further.

According to Hitwise, the world's leading online competitive intelligence service, the share of total Internet searches for American Idol's three finalists as a whole (Carrie Underwood, Vonzell Solomon and Bo Bice) increased 76 percent in the past month (week ending May 14, 2005 versus week ending April 16, 2005).

While combined searches for the three finalists might be expected as the show nears its finale, changes in search volume for specific idol contestants suggest nuances in audience affinity. Looking at volume of searches, the term "carrie underwood" accounted for 52 percent of the searches on the three final contestants, followed by "vonzell solomon" with 25 percent and "bo bice" with 24 percent (the week ending May 14, 2005).  The share of searches for Carrie Underwood and Vonzell Solomon increased by 41 percent and 76 percent respectively, while the share of searches on Bo Bice decreased by 35 percent for the week ending May 14, 2005 versus the prior week.

Not only has American Idol driven Internet users to search for information on contestants, it also has engaged them in conversation about the show. For the week ending May 14, 2005, 37 percent of visitors to Idol On Fox (www.idolonfox.com) went to the American Idol forum (www.prospero.com) upon leaving the site. An additional five percent went to the American Idol store (www.americanidolstore.com) to shop for related products.

"American Idol has succeeded in creating significant buzz amongst its fans, and the Internet has become a major enabler of that process," said Bill Tancer, vice president of research, Hitwise. "As such, the programmers, broadcasters and advertisers involved with Idol should look to indicators like search behavior to monitor audience engagement, track performance and strategically incorporate those learnings into program development."

While popularity and contest climaxes are drivers of Internet searches, scandal can be just as powerful. In late April, news broke about a scandalous love affair between former contestant Corey Clark and show judge Paula Abdul. For the week ending April 30, 2005, search terms ‘corey clark' and ‘paula abdul' skyrocketed 942 percent and 364 percent respectively versus the prior week.

In a strange twist, the site Vote for the Worst (www.votefortheworst.com), with the mission of encouraging viewers to vote for the worst contestants every week in order to keep the show interesting and controversial, received publicity before the voting on May 3, 2005. The market share of visits to the site increased by 200 percent on May 3 compared to May 2. However, on May 4, Scott Savol, the contestant endorsed by Vote for the Worst, was voted off the show.

Demographics of Visitors to American Idol Website

Females made up 62 percent of the visitors to www.idolonfox.com in the four weeks ending May 7, 2005. Those under 55 years of age were most likely to visit the site, while those over 55 were 30 percent less likely. Interestingly, visitors from two of the remaining contestant's home state made up higher-than-average percentages of site visits: residents of Bo Bice's home state of Alabama were 71 percent more likely to visit the American Idol site, and residents of Carrie Underwood's home state of Oklahoma were 50 percent more likely to visit the site for the four weeks ending May 7, 2005.

For inquiries contact: Lizzie Babarczy (212) 380-2910; press@hitwise.com

About Hitwise:

Hitwise is the world's leading online competitive intelligence service. Each day, Hitwise monitors how more than 25 million Internet users interact with over 500,000 websites across 160 industry categories.

By monitoring more people, more websites, more often, Hitwise provides marketers with timely and actionable marketing insights on how their online presence compares to competitive websites.  Companies use this information to maximize the return on their online investment, in efforts such as search marketing, affiliate programs, online advertising, visitor segmentation, content development and lead generation.

Hitwise collects Internet usage information via a combination of ISP data partnerships and opt-in mega panels, and complies with local and international privacy legislation as audited by PricewaterhouseCoopers. Founded in 1997, Hitwise is a privately held company, headquartered in New York City and operates in the US, UK, Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Singapore. 

More information about Hitwise is available at www.hitwise.com.